What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from Cusco FC and 0.7 from Ucv Moquegua, so Cusco FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Cusco FC to win. Cusco FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.7), and we make them about 73% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ucv Moquegua to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 73%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
