How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Universitario de Deportes to win 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Universitario de Deportes and 0.6 from Comerciantes Unidos, so Universitario de Deportes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universitario de Deportes to win. Universitario de Deportes are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.6), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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