How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Deportivo Garcilaso to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.7 from Atlético Grau, so Deportivo Garcilaso come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Deportivo Garcilaso to win. Deportivo Garcilaso are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.7), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
