What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.7 from Atlético Grau, so Deportivo Garcilaso come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Deportivo Garcilaso come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportivo Garcilaso to win. Deportivo Garcilaso are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.7), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.85, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Atlético Grau a draw or better. We make it about 56% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
