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Football/Peru Liga 1/FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso
Peru Liga 1

FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

FBC Melgar crestFBC Melgar7th in Clausura · 19 ptsWDD
v
Deportivo Garcilaso crestDeportivo Garcilaso2nd in Clausura · 22 ptsLWL

What to expect

We expect about 1.6 goals from FBC Melgar and 0.8 from Deportivo Garcilaso, so FBC Melgar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

FBC Melgar come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: FBC Melgar or Draw. This covers FBC Melgar or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say
✓FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last three — one win and two draws.
✓Deportivo Garcilaso have won one of their last three.

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