What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from FC Cajamarca and 1.6 from Cienciano, so FC Cajamarca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Cajamarca to win. FC Cajamarca are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.6), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.95, which works out at about 34 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Cienciano to spoil this. We only make this about 42%, so it's far from a lock.
