How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Arsenal to win 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Arsenal and 0.6 from Coventry City, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Arsenal come into this on five straight wins. Coventry City come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Arsenal to win. Arsenal are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.6), and we make them about 82% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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