How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 3.5 goals 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Aston Villa and 1.7 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Arsenal come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.0-1.7) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 68%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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