Leeds v Brentford: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 60%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Leeds host Brentford in a Premier League clash that looks very even. Our goal expectations are 1.4 for Leeds and 1.3 for Brentford, giving a total of about 2.7 goals. The numbers are almost identical, so the game could go either way. It does not look like a defensive slog; both sides have enough firepower to keep the score moving.

Both clubs have been on a roll lately. Leeds have won three games in a row and, in their last five league outings, they have four wins and only one loss. Brentford are also unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws, and they too come in on three straight victories. When they met before, the result was a 0-0 draw and the five previous meetings produced an average of 2.4 goals, showing that goals are likely to appear.

We think both teams will find the net, so we back both teams to score. The price of 1.71 matches our view of the match and looks attractive. Our chance of this happening is about 60 out of 100, which fits the balance we see in the numbers.

It would have to be a very tight defensive display for our pick to fail – for example, if one side shuts down the other completely and the game ends 0-0 again. That would be unusual given the recent form and the goal averages. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we know a single clean-sheet could spoil it.

Recent meetings