Chelsea v Brighton: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 62%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The game looks fairly even. Both sides are expected to score around one and a half goals each, so the total should be just under three goals. There isn’t much difference in the numbers, so we can expect a balanced match rather than one side dominating. It should be open enough for chances at both ends.

Chelsea have won three of their last five league games and are coming in on two straight wins. Brighton have also won two of their last five and are also on a two-game winning streak. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Brighton have the edge with three wins to Chelsea’s two, and those games have produced almost four goals on average. The most recent meeting was a 3-0 win for Brighton, showing they can score freely against Chelsea.

We think both teams will find the net, so we pick both teams to score. The price of 1.64 matches our view of the game and looks good. Our own chance of this happening is about 62 out of 100, which fits the numbers we have for each side.

For this pick to go wrong, one side would have to keep a clean sheet. That would require a very tight defensive display from either team, which is unlikely given the recent goal averages. We feel fairly confident in our view and do not see a big risk of a shut-out.

Recent meetings