What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Aston Villa and 1.0 from Sunderland, so Aston Villa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Aston Villa or Draw. This covers Aston Villa or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Aston Villa have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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