How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Man United to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Man United host Tottenham at Old Trafford on 10 October. United sit 12th in the 20-team table with five points from five games and a neutral goal difference. They are five points clear of Newcastle above them and level on points with Nottingham Forest below. Tottenham are down at the very bottom, 20th, also on two points from five games and a –6 goal difference, trapped in the relegation zone with Fulham just one spot and one point ahead. Both clubs are desperate for points, but United have a small cushion while Spurs are fighting to escape the drop. The numbers we have for the match show United averaging 1.9 goals and Tottenham 1.2, suggesting an open game with chances for both sides.
United’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight fixtures they have won three, drawn three and lost two. The most recent results are a 1-1 draw away at Fulham, a 1-0 home defeat by Manchester City and a 2-2 draw away at Everton. Before that they beat Ipswich 5-2 at home, suffered a 2-0 loss away to Hull and enjoyed a 3-0 away win over Brighton. Across those eight games United have scored 14 and let in 10, keeping two clean sheets while failing to find the net in three matches. Their last three games have all ended without a win, but at home they have won two of their last three league games.
Tottenham have struggled more sharply. In their previous eight outings they have managed just one win, two draws and five defeats. The latest results are a 3-2 loss at home to Aston Villa, a 3-1 defeat away to Liverpool and a 0-0 stalemate at home with Everton. Prior to that they drew 0-0 away at Nottingham Forest, lost 2-0 at home to Newcastle and were beaten 3-0 away by Brentford. Over those eight matches Spurs have scored only five goals while conceding 13, keeping three clean sheets but failing to score in four games. Their last four road trips have produced no wins, only one draw and three losses.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been tight. In the last five meetings United have won once, Tottenham twice and two matches have ended in draws, with an average of 2.8 goals per encounter. The most recent clash was a 2-0 victory for United in February. Given United’s higher scoring average and Tottenham’s recent defensive frailties, we expect another contest with both sides looking for chances, but United should have the edge.
Our pick is a United win. The price of 1.76 matches our view of the game and the chance of this result coming true sits at about 59 %. United are the stronger side on the numbers and have a better recent record at home, while Tottenham are on a run of two defeats and have struggled to score. For United not to win, they would need to be shut out completely and Tottenham would have to find a goal despite scoring only five in their last eight games. If that happens, the pick would fail, but the odds look right for United to come out on top.
Recent results
Tottenham have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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