What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Alverca and 1.2 from Arouca, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Alverca come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.4-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 76% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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