What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Gil Vicente and 1.4 from Porto, so Porto come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Porto come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 0.9-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Porto have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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