How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Over 1.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Arouca and 1.1 from Moreirense, so Arouca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Arouca come into this on three straight wins. Moreirense come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.1), landing about 76% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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