How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Not both teams to score 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Rio Ave and 1.8 from Porto, so Porto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.5 goals between the two (xG 0.7-1.8). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Both these sides carry some threat, so one moment at either end spoils it. We make it about 62%: a lean, not a lock.
