What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Benfica and 0.9 from Famalicao, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Benfica come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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