What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Casa Pia and 2.1 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Benfica come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.1), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Casa Pia only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 76%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
