How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 7. We made Under 3.5 goals 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Casa Pia and 2.1 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.9 goals in total (xG 0.8-2.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 66%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Benfica have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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