How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Estoril and 1.1 from Rio Ave, so Estoril come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Rio Ave come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.9 goals in total (xG 1.8-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 71%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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