What to expect
We expect about 2.9 goals from Sp Lisbon and 0.7 from Alverca, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to win. Sp Lisbon are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.9-0.7), and we make them about 85% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 85 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Alverca a draw or better. We make it about 85% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
