How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Sp Lisbon win & Over 1.5 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.0 goals from Sp Lisbon and 0.7 from Alverca, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon win & Over 1.5. Sp Lisbon to come out on top in what shapes up as an open, high-scoring game (xG 2.9-0.7). The result and the goals line point the same way here.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Sp Lisbon have won two of the last two meetings.
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