What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Porto and 1.2 from Sp Lisbon, so Porto come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Porto come into this on five straight wins. Sp Lisbon come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto or Draw. This covers Porto or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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