What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Argentinos Jrs and 0.5 from Aldosivi, so Argentinos Jrs come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Argentinos Jrs come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Argentinos Jrs to win. Argentinos Jrs are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.5), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Aldosivi a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 71%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
