How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 2.5 goals 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Independiente and 0.9 from Gimnasia Mendoza, so Independiente come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gimnasia Mendoza come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.5-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 59%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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