How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 1.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Banfield and 1.0 from Belgrano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. Goals expected. The model projects about 2.2 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Belgrano have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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