How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 1.5 goals 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Banfield and 1.0 from Belgrano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Belgrano come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. Goals expected. The model projects about 2.2 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. At around 68% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.