How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Central Cordoba and 1.1 from Defensa y Justicia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Central Cordoba come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Defensa y Justicia to score 1 or fewer. This is about Defensa y Justicia's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Central Cordoba have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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