How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Independiente to score 1 or fewer 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Union de Santa Fe and 1.2 from Independiente, so Union de Santa Fe come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Union de Santa Fe come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Independiente to score 1 or fewer. This is about Independiente's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Independiente have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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