How it turned out
We projected about 1.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Independiente (Draw No Bet) 67%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Independiente and 0.6 from San Lorenzo, so Independiente come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.6 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Independiente (Draw No Bet). Independiente are favoured here (xG 1.1-0.6), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Independiente defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Independiente have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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