What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Instituto and 0.4 from Estudiantes Rio Cuarto, so Instituto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Instituto come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 1.7 goals between the two (xG 1.3-0.4). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A single defensive slip or a late set-piece, and the clean sheet this needs is gone. We make it about 72% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
