How it turned out
We projected about 1.5 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Under 2.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Instituto and 0.6 from San Lorenzo, so Instituto come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.5 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.5 goals in total (xG 0.9-0.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 68%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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