How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Newells Old Boys host Vélez Sarsfield at home in a Primera División clash on 11 September 2026. Newells sit a few points behind the leaders, while Vélez sit just above the mid-table. Both teams are close in the table and a win will tighten the race at the top. The numbers we have suggest Vélez are the stronger side, but the game is expected to be tight and low-scoring.
Newells have played eight games in their recent run, winning three, drawing three and losing two. Their last five results are a 1-1 draw with Rosario Central away, a 0-0 draw with Estudiantes L.P. away, a 2-1 home win over Banfield, a 2-0 home win over Dep. Riestra and a 2-1 away loss to Defensa y Justicia. At home they have been solid, winning three of their last four matches and drawing the other. In those eight games they have scored nine goals and let in seven, keeping three clean sheets while failing to score in two matches.
Vélez come into the game unbeaten in their last eight outings, with four wins and four draws. Their most recent fixtures are a 1-0 home win over Estudiantes L.P., a 1-1 away draw with Dep. Riestra, a 2-2 away draw with River Plate, a 1-1 home draw with Defensa y Justicia, a 1-1 away draw with Boca Juniors and a 1-0 home win over Independiente. On the road they have one win and three draws in their last four trips. Over the eight games they have scored eleven times and conceded six, keeping three clean sheets. Their last match was five days ago.
The two sides have met five times before. Newells have won twice, Vélez have won twice and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have produced an average of 1.6 goals. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 4 May 2026. Given the recent form of both clubs and the history of low-scoring meetings, we expect another tight affair with few chances.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals. The price of 1.54 matches our reading of the game. We think the total will be around two goals, with each side likely to score about one. The price looks good for a 65 % chance of success. The pick would go wrong if both defenses hold firm and the match ends 0-0 or 1-0, but the recent goal averages suggest that at least two goals are likely.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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