How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Racing Club and 0.8 from Banfield, so Racing Club come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Racing Club come into this on three straight defeats. Banfield come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.5-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 60%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. The price is shorter than our own read of about 60%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.