What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sarmiento Junin and 1.5 from River Plate, so River Plate come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: River Plate or Draw. This covers River Plate or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Sarmiento Junin have won two of their last five.
✓River Plate have won one of their last five.
✓Five of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
15 Mar 2026River Plate 2 - 0 Sarmiento Junin
12 Oct 2025River Plate 0 - 1 Sarmiento Junin
6 Apr 2025Sarmiento Junin 1 - 1 River Plate
28 Jul 2024River Plate 1 - 0 Sarmiento Junin
20 Mar 2023Sarmiento Junin 0 - 2 River Plate
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