How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Sarmiento Junin and 1.5 from River Plate, so River Plate come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.2-1.5), and two is enough to land it, landing about 67% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
River Plate have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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