How it turned out
We projected about 1.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Velez Sarsfield to score 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Velez Sarsfield and 0.7 from Tigre, so Velez Sarsfield come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Tigre come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Velez Sarsfield to score. This is about Velez Sarsfield's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Velez Sarsfield have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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