How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Ind. Rivadavia to score 1 or fewer 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Barracas Central and 1.1 from Ind. Rivadavia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Barracas Central come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ind. Rivadavia to score 1 or fewer. This is about Ind. Rivadavia's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Barracas Central have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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