How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Al-Arabi to win 42%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Al-Arabi and 1.5 from Qatar SC, so Al-Arabi come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al-Arabi to win. Al-Arabi are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.5), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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