How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al-Duhail SC to win 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Al-Duhail SC and 1.0 from Al-Shahaniya, so Al-Duhail SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al-Duhail SC to win. Al-Duhail SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.0), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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