How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al-Duhail SC to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Al-Duhail SC and 1.2 from Al-Wakrah, so Al-Duhail SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Al-Duhail SC come into this on five straight wins. Al-Wakrah come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al-Duhail SC to win. Al-Duhail SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.2), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Al-Duhail SC have won three of the last five meetings.
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