How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made FC Arges to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from FC Arges and 0.7 from FC Botosani, so FC Arges come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
FC Arges come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Arges to win. FC Arges are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.7), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
FC Botosani have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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