What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from FC Arges and 0.7 from FC Botosani, so FC Arges come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 1.8 goals between the two (xG 1.1-0.7). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
A single defensive slip or a late set-piece, and the clean sheet this needs is gone. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 57%.
