How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made FCSB to win 52%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from FCSB and 0.8 from Petrolul, so FCSB come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FCSB come into this on three straight defeats. Petrolul come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FCSB to win. FCSB are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.8), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
FCSB have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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