How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Not both teams to score 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Akhmat Grozny and 1.1 from Baltika, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.1 goals between the two (xG 1.0-1.1). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.87, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Baltika have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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