How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Krasnodar and 1.2 from Zenit, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Krasnodar come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.2-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 78% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Zenit have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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