CSKA Moscow v Rodina Moscow: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made CSKA Moscow to win 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.6 goals from CSKA Moscow and 0.9 from Rodina Moscow, so CSKA Moscow come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: CSKA Moscow to win. CSKA Moscow are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.9), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.