Akhmat Grozny v Rodina Moscow prediction

What to expect

We expect about 2.1 goals from Akhmat Grozny and 1.1 from Rodina Moscow, so Akhmat Grozny come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Akhmat Grozny come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Akhmat Grozny to win. Akhmat Grozny are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.1), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.