How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Dynamo Makhachkala host CSKA Moscow at home in a Russian Premier League clash on 17 September 2026. Dynamo sit seventh in the 16-team table with 12 points from eight games and a +1 goal difference. They are just one point behind Rubin Kazan above them and one point ahead of Baltika below them. CSKA sit two places higher in fifth place with 16 points and a +4 goal difference. Dinamo Moscow sit directly above CSKA on the same points, while Rubin Kazan sit four points behind the Moscow side. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but the real battle is for the three points that could separate them from the teams around them.
Dynamo’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn two and lost three. The most recent result was a 3-2 defeat away to FK Akhmat. Before that they beat Rodina 2-0 at home, then beat Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 at home, and travelled to win 2-1 at Fakel Voronezh. They also held Spartak Moscow to a 0-0 draw at home and shared a 1-1 draw away at Akhmat Grozny. In those eight games Dynamo have scored 11 and let in 10, kept two clean sheets and failed to score only once. Four of the last four home games have produced two wins, one draw and one loss, showing they can win but also concede.
CSKA Moscow have been more consistent. In their last eight outings they have won four, drawn three and lost only once. Their latest game was a 1-1 draw at home with Rubin Kazan. Prior to that they beat Zenit 2-1 away, drew 1-1 with Krylya Sovetov at home, and beat Baltika 2-1 at home. They also enjoyed a 3-1 home win over Lokomotiv Moscow and a 2-1 away victory at Pari NN. CSKA have not lost in their last six games and are unbeaten on the road in their last three, with two wins and a draw. Over the eight-game run they have scored 12 and conceded 9, kept one clean sheet and were held scoreless once. Their recent away form suggests they can pick up points on the road.
The two sides have met four times before, and CSKA have won every encounter. The average scoreline of those meetings is two goals in total. The most recent meeting was a 3-1 win for CSKA at home on 21 March 2026. That history points to a game where CSKA are likely to dominate but not necessarily flood the net. Given both teams’ recent numbers – Dynamo averaging about one goal and CSKA a little over one – the match is expected to be tight and low-scoring.
We think the game will stay under 3.5 goals. Our expectation is around 2.1 goals in total, with Dynamo scoring about one and CSKA a little more. The price of 1.31 matches our view of the match. The pick looks good because both sides have shown they can keep scores low and the recent head-to-head average supports it. For the pick to go wrong, we would need to see both teams scoring at least twice, which would require a sudden surge in attacking output that has not been evident in the last eight games for either side.
Recent results
CSKA Moscow have won four of the last four meetings.
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