How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 52%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Baltika host Zenit at their home ground in the Russian Premier League. Baltika sit seventh in the 16-team table with eleven points from eight matches and a modest +3 goal difference. Zenit are fifth, holding fifteen points and a healthier +9 goal difference. The gap between the two sides is small, but a win for either club could move them a place up the table. Both teams are only a few points away from the clubs above and below them, so every point matters as the season heads into its second half.
Baltika have struggled to find consistency in their last eight games, managing just one win, one draw and six defeats. Their most recent results were a 2-2 draw away at Fakel, a 1-0 loss at home to Lokomotiv, a 2-1 home victory over Dynamo Moscow, a 2-1 away loss to CSKA Moscow, another 2-1 home defeat to Dynamo Moscow and a 1-0 away loss to Lokomotiv. In those eight matches they have scored six goals while letting in eleven, and they failed to find the net in four of them. At home the picture is even bleaker: one win and four losses in the last five fixtures. The side also had only four days to recover before this meeting, which does not help their recent poor run.
Zenit arrive on the road with a very different record. In their last eight games they have won seven and lost only once. Their recent form includes a 2-1 home win over Lokomotiv, a 2-1 home defeat to CSKA, a 3-0 away win at Orenburg, a 5-0 away victory over Akron Togliatti, a 1-0 win away at Rostov and a 2-1 home win over Sochi. All four of their most recent away games have been victories. Over those eight matches Zenit have scored nineteen goals and conceded just five, keeping four clean sheets. Like Baltika they also played only four days ago, so fatigue should be similar for both sides.
When the two clubs have met before, Zenit have been the clear winners. In the last four meetings Zenit have won three times and drawn once, with an average of one goal per game. The most recent encounter ended in a 1-0 win for Zenit on 27 February. Given the low scoring history and the tight defensive displays from both sides, this fixture is likely to be another quiet affair, with few chances and a strong chance of a clean sheet for at least one team.
We think the safest bet is that both teams will not score. The numbers point to a tight, low-scoring game, roughly two goals in total, and the chance of both sides finding the net is just over fifty percent. The price of 1.72 is shorter than our reading, which makes it attractive. For the bet to fail, both sides would need to score, which would require either a sudden surge in attacking intent from Baltika or Zenit slipping defensively – both unlikely given the recent form and the defensive records shown above.
Recent results
Zenit have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
