What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Dynamo Makhachkala and 1.0 from Rodina Moscow, so Dynamo Makhachkala come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Rodina Moscow come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dynamo Makhachkala to win. Dynamo Makhachkala are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Rodina Moscow to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 54%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
