What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Orenburg and 1.2 from Akron Togliatti, so Orenburg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.9 goals (xG 1.7-1.2) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We make it about 75% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
