How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Dynamo Moscow to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Dynamo Moscow and 1.0 from Akhmat Grozny, so Dynamo Moscow come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Dynamo Moscow come into this on two straight defeats. Akhmat Grozny come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dynamo Moscow to win. Dynamo Moscow are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Akhmat Grozny have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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