How it turned out
We projected about 3.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Krasnodar (Draw No Bet) 86%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Rodina Moscow and 2.8 from Krasnodar, so Krasnodar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Krasnodar come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Krasnodar (Draw No Bet). Krasnodar are favoured here (xG 1.0-2.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Krasnodar defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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