How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Fakel Voronezh host Baltika at home in a Russian Premier League clash on 12 September 2026. Fakel sit at the bottom of the table, 16th out of 16, with just two points from seven games and a -6 goal difference. They are in the relegation zone and only two points ahead of Akron Togliatti, who sit just above them. Baltika sit in the top half, 7th with ten points from the same number of games and a +3 goal difference. They are two points behind Dynamo Makhachkala and one point ahead of Rubin Kazan. Both teams are looking for points, but the stakes are very different – Fakel need to climb out of the drop zone while Baltika aim to push into the European spots.
Fakel have not won any of their last eight matches, recording three draws and five defeats. Their most recent results are a 3-1 loss away at Rostov, a 3-2 loss away at Krasnodar, a 2-1 loss at home to Dynamo Makhachkala, a 1-1 draw at home with Krylya Sovetov, a 1-1 draw away to Pari NN and a 1-0 home loss to Lokomotiv Moscow. That string of three straight defeats means they have scored seven goals while conceding thirteen in those eight games. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to score in two matches. Six of those games saw both sides find the net, and four featured three or more goals.
Baltika’s form over their last eight games is also poor, with two wins and six defeats. Their latest fixtures include a 1-0 home loss to Lokomotiv, a 3-0 away win over Rodina, a 2-1 home win against Dynamo Moscow, a 2-1 away loss to CSKA Moscow, a 2-1 home loss to Dynamo Moscow and a 1-0 away loss to Lokomotiv Moscow. On the road they have one win and two losses in their last three trips. In total they have scored seven and let in nine goals, kept one clean sheet and have been shut out four times. Three of those eight games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in three matches.
The two clubs have met three times before. Fakel have never beaten Baltika, while Baltika have one win and one draw against them. Those meetings have produced an average of 1.5 goals per game. The most recent encounter ended in a 0-0 stalemate on 2 December 2023. Given the low scoring history and the defensive habits shown by both sides, we expect another tight affair with few chances.
Our pick is that both teams will not score. The price of 1.63 is shorter than what we feel the game will deliver, making it an attractive offer. We think a clean sheet for either side is likely, especially with Fakel’s recent difficulty scoring and Baltika’s tendency to be shut out. The bet succeeds if the match ends 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1. It would go wrong only if both sides find the net, which seems unlikely given the recent low-scoring record and the expected total of about two goals.
Recent results
Baltika have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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