What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Dynamo Moscow and 0.9 from Orenburg, so Dynamo Moscow come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Dynamo Moscow to win. Dynamo Moscow are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Orenburg a draw or better. We make it about 68% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
